2024 05,19 09:47 |
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2009 01,20 17:15 |
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The chance for a new world order By Henry A. Kissinger
(January 12, 2009 Herald tribune) 新世界秩序を実現する絶好の機会② ヘンリー・キッシンジャー氏 出典:http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/01/12/opinion/edkissinger.php ※厳密にはFT記事ではありませんが、今後の世界経済を読むために重要な記事でしたのでご紹介します。 The ultimate challenge is to shape the common concern of most countries and all major ones regarding the economic crisis, together with a common fear of jihadist terrorism, into a common strategy reinforced by the realization that the new issues like proliferation, energy and climate change permit no national or regional solution. 新世界秩序構築に向けての課題とは、世界の大国およびその他国達の共通の悩みである世界恐慌やテロについて、世界共通の戦略を構築できるかにある。その戦略を構築する際、世界の繁栄、エネルギー・環境問題は一国やある地域ブロックレベルでは対処できないとの理解が各国にあるかが重要なポイントであろう。 The role of China in a new world order is equally crucial. A relationship that started on both sides as essentially a strategic design to constrain a common adversary has evolved over the decades into a pillar of the international system. 新世界秩序においては、中国の役割が大変重要であると考える。 Both sides overestimated the durability of this arrangement. But while it lasted, it sustained unprecedented global growth. It mitigated as well the concerns over China's role once China emerged in full force as a fellow superpower. A consensus had developed according to which adversarial relations between these pillars of the international system would destroy much that had been achieved and benefit no one. That conviction needs to be preserved and reinforced. 米国・中国の両国はこのお互いの依存関係をあまりにも過大評価してきた。とはいえ、この両者の依存関係こそが、前例のない世界経済の成長を実現させてきた。さらに、中国の世界覇権国家化に対する懸念・疑念も軽減させてきた。「もしこの依存関係が破壊されれば、今まで築いてきた成功も消え去り、両者にとって損失となる」という共通認識が今まで醸造されてきた。この共通認識を今後も維持していく必要がある。What kind of global economic order arises will depend importantly on how China and America deal with each other over the next few years. A frustrated China may take another look at an exclusive regional Asian structure, for which the nucleus already exists in the Asean-plus-three concept. 今後の新世界秩序がどのような形になるかは、今後数年の中国と米国の関係で決まる。もしかしたら、中国が独自にアジア圏での経済・政治ブロックを構築させる可能性もある。 以上。 (①もご参照) PR |
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2009 01,20 16:49 |
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The chance for a new world order By Henry A. Kissinger
(January 12, 2009 Herald tribune) 新世界秩序を実現する絶好の機会① ヘンリー・キッシンジャー氏 出典:http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/01/12/opinion/edkissinger.php ※厳密にはFT記事ではありませんが、今後の世界経済を読むために重要な記事でしたのでご紹介します。 The financial and political crises are, in fact, closely related partly because, during the period of economic exuberance, a gap had opened up between the economic and the political organization of the world. 今回の経済危機と政治危機とは密接に関連していると考えている。すなわち、世界の経済機関と政治的機関の間に大きな溝が生じていることにこの危機は起因すると考えるからだ。 The economic world has been globalized. Its institutions have a global reach and have operated by maxims that assumed a self-regulating global market. The financial collapse exposed the mirage. It made evident the absence of global institutions to cushion the shock and to reverse the trend. Inevitably, when the affected publics turned to their national political institutions, these were driven principally by domestic politics, not considerations of world order. International order will not come about either in the political or economic field until there emerge general rules toward which countries can orient themselves. 国際秩序は、政治的世界であれ経済的世界であれ、世界の国々がその秩序に従うような大原則が生まれてこないかぎり、成立し得ない。 |
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2009 01,11 18:30 |
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【題名】
Puritans versus spendthrifts: recession’s culture war (January 9 2009, FT) 不況期における”節約の逆説” 出典:http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/99bf399c-de86-11dd-9464-000077b07658.html 【記事】 Sexual intercourse began in 1963, pinpoints the death of America’s love affair with thrift. In the affluent society created by the postwar boom, instant gratification replaced the deferred variety, and consumption eclipsed frugality as the spirit of the age. 1963年、アメリカ人の価値観は”節約”から”消費”へと転換した。 Today saving is back in vogue, as western economies struggle to recover from the after-effects of spending supercharged by excessive borrowing. However, the task facing the world’s leaders is to persuade terrified consumers to spend like there is no tomorrow – and that a return to thrift would make matters much worse. US president-elect Barack Obama and the UK’s Gordon Brown are both drawing up the sort of ambitious public infrastructure programmes that are needed to put the economy right. In the present circumstances, it is governments, not consumers, that will provide the instant gratification needed to boost the economy. |
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2009 01,07 10:58 |
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【題名】
There is only one alternative to the dollar (January 5 2009, FT) 米ドルの代替になりえるものは唯一つ! 出典: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5b21dafc-db5a-11dd-be53-000077b07658.html 【記事】 The great challenge confronting the foreign exchange market at the start of 2009 is finding a good alternative to the US dollar. 2009年の為替市場において最大の注目点は、米ドル通貨の代替になりえるものを見つけることです。 There is not now a clear alternative to the dollar because all big economies have slid into recession. Real gross domestic product could contract by 1.5 per cent in both the US and Europe during 2009 and by as much as 2.5 per cent in Japan. 全ての主要国が景気が悪化する中で、米ドル通貨の代替になりえる他通貨は明確ではない。2009年のGDP成長率は、米国およびEUが▲1.5%、日本が▲2.5%のマイナスとなる見込みだ。 The US economy could be the first to emerge from recession this year because it appears to be headed for a far more aggressive macroeconomic stimulus programme than any other country. そんな中、米国経済が世界恐慌から他国に比べ、最も早く復活する可能性が高い。なぜなら、他国に比べて最も積極的な財政および金融政策を実施する見込みだからだ。 If the US stimulus policy revives the economy by spring or summer, the dollar could rally further. The risk posed by US policy comes from potential market concerns about monetary policy becoming inflationary. もし米の経済政策がうまく機能し、今年の春または夏に米経済が回復すれば、米ドルはその価値を上げることとなろう。しかしながら、米国の積極的な財政・金融出動に伴うインフレリスク(米ドル価値引き下げ効果)にも注意を要する。 As a result of the global scope of the recession, there is no country that wants its exchange rate to appreciate. The clear alternative to the dollar in 2009 is not other currencies but that ancient form of money: gold. Precious metals could emerge as a hedge for investors suspicious of central banks and fearful that inflation will be the simplest solution to the challenge of global deleveraging. 大恐慌の中、いかなる国も、自国通貨価値を上げたいという国はいない(例えば、日本の場合、円高→輸出大打撃リスク)。そのため、2009年において米ドル通貨の代替になりえる他通貨はないだろう。その代わりに、最も原始的なもの、金がその代替になるのではないだろうか。 米国の積極的な財政・金融出動の効果に疑問を持つ投資家や、インフレリスクに注視する投資家にとって、金は米ドル(またはその他貨幣の)代替物として浮上してくるだろう。 |
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2009 01,05 20:26 |
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【題名】
Will the recession end in 2009? (December 30 2008, FT) 2009年に景気は回復するか?? 出典: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/13ee30ee-d66f-11dd-9bf7-000077b07658.html 【記事】 No, as far as the US, the UK, Spain and Ireland are concerned; possibly Yes for other European economies and Japan. Whatever happens, 2009 will not be pleasant. For all the cuts in interest rates and taxes, higher unemployment will be the dominant issue of the first half of the year, outweighing gains to real incomes from these policies and lower commodity prices. Uncertainty will be the watchword for the year, making any prediction precarious, but there is still a good chance that rising incomes will become powerful forces in the continental European and Japanese economies later in the year. For those economies that need much bigger rises in household savings rates to adjust for the recession, recoveries will be delayed. There is also a good chance the world will enter a debt-deflation trap, although I hope the authorities will do everything to avoid this. But even if we experience genuine green shoots of recovery, as I expect, 2009 will be a year to forget. Chris Giles |
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